Many times at the Bridge table, a player can commit a very costly error: trying to guess his opponents' cards based on his own beliefs and judgment about what is correct.
Through my experience in Bridge, I realized that you can't take anything for granted in this game. There are many different viewpoints and styles, and therefore you cannot base your choice of play on what you would do, or on whatever you think is "right" in a given situation. There is a bucket full of choices for each player, and they will use it the way they please, or think it's best, notwithstanding your opinion of it. Players who are willing to take a risk unabashedly are the ones who really have what it takes to win in Bridge.
You are East and find yourself defending 4 Spades doubled, playing IMPs, after the following bidding:
The lead was the 2 of Hearts. You win the first trick with the Ace and have to pick your next lead.
Next Friday I will post my thoughts about this position.